El Niño pattern could cause 451,000 additional heat deaths globally by February, with developing nations hit hardest, research shows.
A powerful El Niño weather pattern forecast to peak this year could cause an additional 451,000 heat-related deaths worldwide between June and February, according to projections released Wednesday. Developing nations, particularly across Africa and Southeast Asia, face the heaviest toll as global temperatures are expected to run 1.2°C above normal.
- ▪Climate Impact Lab at University of Chicago estimates El Niño will drive 44% more extremely hot days than a typical year through February.
- ▪Nigeria alone could see roughly half of Africa’s projected 66,800 additional heat deaths in the Sahel region.
- ▪Indonesia faces 19,300 extra deaths; Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia combined projected at 19,400.
- ▪India could see 15,800 additional heat deaths; Brazil 13,300, underscoring vulnerability across developing economies.
- ▪Researchers analyzed temperature-mortality relationships across 24,378 regions, accounting for local climate and population vulnerability.
- ▪El Niño, declared in June, is on track to be the strongest on record, significantly amplifying human-caused climate change effects.
- ▪Projections suggest governments and aid organizations implement heat warnings, cooling centers, and hydration stations to prevent deaths.
- ▪UN warned a day earlier that El Niño poses a significant threat to global health and systems.
- ▪Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said findings enable decision-makers to target emergency interventions where they can save tens of thousands of lives.
Source: according to research projections
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