YouGov MRP poll projects Labour as largest party in hung parliament with 241 seats, up sharply from year-ago forecast of 144.
A new MRP poll projects Labour would emerge as the largest party if an election were held tomorrow, though falling well short of an outright majority with an estimated 241 seats. The projection marks a significant recovery from the same pollster’s forecast a year ago, which had suggested Labour could be reduced to just 144 seats.
- ▪YouGov’s MRP poll shows Labour winning 241 seats in its central estimate, making it the largest party but short of the 326 needed for a majority
- ▪The projection represents a net loss of 170 seats for Labour compared to the 2024 election result
- ▪The forecast represents a major improvement from YouGov’s MRP poll one year ago, which projected Labour down to 144 seats
- ▪Reform UK polling shows significant gains, positioned much closer to the Conservative party than in the previous year’s projection
- ▪Labour leader Andy Burnham and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch are both preparing for their respective party conferences next week
- ▪Polling influences how political leaders operate and shape their campaign strategies, even when treated with caution by experienced politicians
- ▪MRP polls are considered stronger at revealing electoral trends than at predicting specific outcomes
- ▪A hung parliament scenario would require Labour to form a coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangement to govern
Source: according to polling data
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